Monday, September 29, 2008

a simple explanation of the bill failure

The first iteration of the $700B bailout bill failed today, with the majority of Republican representatives voting against it.

A quick glance at political maps reveals that virtually none of the red states experienced bubbly house prices (hint: bubbly prices in the past are shown as plummeting prices today), while nearly all of the blue states did (the exceptions appear to be Florida and Nevada, which both had price bubbles and are swing states), since Republicans overwhelmingly represent the rural parts of the country while the house price bubble occurred almost exclusively in Urban areas.

From this perspective, the bailout bill is a mechanism for taking money from those that didn’t participate in the foolishness of the last decade (rural populations which tend to be Republican) and bailing out those that did (urban populations which tend to be Democratic). From this perspective, it is understandable that the Republicans killed the bill.

My story is that rural representatives killed the bill and rural representatives just happen to mostly be Republican. I do not claim that there is anything especially Republican about killing this bailout deal. The modern Republican party can make few claims to the fiscal conservatism they used to represent that would impel them to oppose this sort of bill on political grounds.

For reference, I think the whole US Political system is screwed and I have no intention in taking sides (R vs D) in this post, just making simple observations.

thanks to:

zillow map

cnn map

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