new favorite blog

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/

very detailed and approachable market analysis with an emphasis on the current credit/housing crash. if you don't think it is a crash yet, give it a few months. i think we'll see around 25% of Americans losing close to half of their paper wealth from what they considered their safest investment.

how this can possibly not cause a consumer-led recession is beyond me.

actually, i just thought of a way. most of the paper wealth being lost will be lost by people who own homes. these people are mostly older folks who tend to not throw their money around in the first place. people who do throw their money around (and thus most strongly support our consumer-based economy) rent their place to live. the excess housing created by the building boom will lead to lower rent prices as more housing units compete over the same renter pool. the money not being spent on rent by the young and feckless will instead be spent on ipods and video games. and everything will be ok.

long term homeowners hoping to retire on their craftsman-style bank accounts will have to lower their expectations, but only the ones who unwisely raised their expectations in the first place will be disappointed.

a house is a place to live, not a way to get rich.

well, in many markets today, a house is a way to get poor.