Tuesday, January 22, 2008

there is panic in the markets, but not enough

somehow, people are starting to talk about this being the bottom and that the only way from here is up.

i disagree for one pretty big reason:

more housing problems haven't been priced into the market. increasing numbers of people are going to walk away from the houses not because they have to, but because they will see them as bad investments. this reality hasn't been priced in yet. it is surprising information to the people who lent the money for the houses:

"I'm astonished that people would walk away from their homes." - Bank of America CEO

this means more reported losses from BoA, and most every other financial institution. which means that the markets are still heading down, not up. there will be a time to buy in, but now is not that time.

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